Wednesday, May 20, 2009

The begining is at hand

Famous quote: " Everyone has 20/20 hindsight"

Corrolary: "Hindsight gets better over time, or inversely 20/20 hindsight prior to everyone elses hindsight equals foresight"

So last week I watched as the DOW dropped 186 points in one day and on the same day gold rose by some amount that now escapses me. Assumption: investors left the stock market for whatever reason ( profit-taking, bad reports) and needed a place to put that money. They can put it into dollars or they can put it into a nearly equally liquid asset: GOLD. They chose gold. Gold is an expensive alternative to dollars, so why choose gold? Because investors thought that they would "loose less" in gold than in dollars. But dollars are free? Yes..... unless the dollar you stored that night was worth less than what it was the next morning, and by an amount more than the cost to move into gold and back out. Us regular folk might want to consider what that means....

I think non-investor types have a hard time in realizing the the dollar itself has a value that moves in relation to other stores of wealth. Now then today we have BOTH the stockmarket and gold rise! What does it mean???? Its mid week, trading is not over so traders first moved out of the dollars to the market, but something happended.. I am not privey to what, but the dollar began a real slide down... so investors moved even more away from dollars some to stocks and some gold. Money is losing value, the term you need INFLATION.. yes INFLATION. Now many things contribute to the price of an item, but when ALL items raise in price against any one currency ( thats US Dollars) then the ONLY reason is inflation. So last week investors chose to have all options open some dollars, some stock, some gold... today they moved so that they have only a little dollars, more stock and more gold ( and other commodities such as oil). I am also willing to bet a lot of FOREX type moved to euros or any other currency than dollars as well.

So what does it all mean? Well, in 1981 I was graduating High school, just as my daughter is doing this very week. Back then we had a democrat in the white house....er just like now, and gold was at $1000 per ounce...er just like now... and intrest rates were 12% on a house, 18% on a car, and 25% on a credit card. Everyone had money, but because prices kept changing it never bought much, we saw minimum wages get raised up every year or two to try and keep up ( but it never did) and getting a job was hard.... hmmm I wonder what we are in for now?

I can't paint a more clear picture. Inflation is comming. It's 1981 all over again. Get ready or be bowled over. You read it here first.

1 comment:

  1. ""Ms. Lester’s group identified another set of circumstances that could lead to losses in TIPS: interest rates rising but inflation falling. Between July 1980 and July 1981, interest rates rose to about 15% from 10% while the CPI fell to 10% from 14%. The result: a“perfect storm” that could have sent TIPS down by about 20%.""
    From Here:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204830304574139532633748784.html

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